No, I’m not the first to call it an iFad

21 Comments 15 June 2010

Let’s be honest, how many people need an iPad? I don’t care how “cool” it is. The reality of it all is that it’s a fad that will pass. It’s like we are so impatient for Apple to come out with something new, we convince ourselves that making a huge iPhone is definitely the wave-of-the-future. And then we even convince Steve Jobs it’s a good idea too. How many times did this guy say a “tablet” wasn’t going to happen? Maybe I just don’t get it. I’ve only messed around with one for a few minutes, but in that period of time and from being force fed story after story about it I just still can’t see the appeal.

There is one example I can think of, and that’s the traveling business person. Otherwise I just don’t see how anyone would get enough use out of something like this. Sure, if you find yourself often stuck in airports, in desperate need to connect to the internet on a screen larger than your phone, or you don’t own a Kindle then I guess I get it. But if you don’t fit those criteria then please, someone, convince me this is a worthy investment. Netbooks never took off, so how is this really any different? OK, maybe the book thing and there’s all these fancy Apps, but what else?

I’m even stumped as to how it would really work in my business world of leasing apartments. A leasing agent isn’t going to carry it around and make notes, or show floor plans, or fill out a guest card on it. They just won’t. Why? It doesn’t save any time really, and writing information down seems more personal and less intrusive than typing something into a computer, er, sorry, iFad. It’s not that the technology is intimidating, it’s just that it doesn’t flow with a real life transaction. Maybe someday (and that’s a pretty strong maybe), but today is not the day (at least in my industry).

So what. Bottomline is that it is “cool” (to some people), and Apple fanatics are still drooling on theirs whenever they find time to use it. It’s a luxury item. It’s not a necessity. No one needs one, but lots of people want one. Good for Apple. Well played. I just feel bad for all the people that buy one, look back two years from now, and think to themselves, “Man that was not worth it.” Either that or they will still be trying to find a place to carry it.

Time will tell, but the iPhone 4 makes a ton more sense to me. Will the iFad fizzle away in less than 6 months? Will people find unique applications to use on them once a week in an executive meeting? Will it be worth the investment just to say you’re “cool”? Your call.

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http://www.bsitko.com Bill Szczytko

After you get over the initial “It’s so cool!” factor you have a device that’s too big to be a phone, not powerful enough to be a PC, and too big to be a book reader. It needs to find its niche soon or it’ll be in the same discussion as the Zune.
- http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen
  
  Not sure if I’ll put it into Zune territory, but I agree it just seems weird where it falls in place. It doesn’t replace anything really, and I have a feeling that replacement costs to swap out one that is dropped or sat on won’t be something that the majority is willing to shell out. I dropped my iPod awhile back and can’t even justify replacing it right now. I know that replacing an iPad wouldn’t be in the cards. And you can guarantee that if I were to issue one (or more) of these to leasing teams that there would have to be some seriously liability on them to keep it safe. I don’t think a lot of people would want to take on that responsibility knowing that if they lose it or it’s stolen that they are responsible for replacing it.
UrbaneWay

Hm,…………. what is all the commotion about, based on the number of sales the iPad is a pretty big success isn't it? Marketing 101, since when is a “need” required, the iPad has tapped into the “want” category like never before. Who “needed” a new flat screen, we all wanted one, but most folks didn't need one. Further, the iPad does something else really well that you are overlooking, it Enhances the user Experience of media consumption in a multitude of ways. (Sent from my iPhone:) And heck, maybe you will accidentally win one at NAA, I here they are giving a few away,
http://mikewhaling.com Mike Whaling

Mark, I just got one this week. There are certainly some instances when I'm puzzled about why to use it, but I can tell you that I'd much rather read on this thing than my phone any day. Maybe that changes with the iPhone 4, but I doubt it. The iPad is perfect for cruising the Web while watching TV, and I'd much rather use it at a coffee shop than worry about finding an outlet for my laptop.

The killer app for this thing is in business. I think it's perfect for sales staff. Show off your videos/slide deck/website/etc., email the presentation to the prospect, pull up Salesforce (or your CRM of choice) and take the order. If you have Square installed, you can take a credit card straight from the device. Plus, with iBooks and a couple other new features coming from Apple, it could be a great platform for content distribution (think digital products like e-books).

I disagree about it being less personal than writing. Ten minutes with this thing, and you'll see that you'll want to share it with people … it's a much more shareable experience than anything on a phone or a computer, turning all of your digital content into opportunities for face-to-face conversation. And your leasing professional can enter contact info into an electronic guest card without hiding behind a monitor. Now, that conversation takes place on a couch in the clubhouse, and you only enter the information once.

Sure, iPad 2 will have a lot of features that were left out of this version. Sure, no one “needs” an iPad (or whatever competing device Google/Blackberry/Dell comes out with). But I think there are some incredibly compelling uses for one, even if it is just a fad.
http://twitter.com/tmgrace Tim Grace

Mark, I definitely think you’re wrong on this one. Mike and Eric have hit some of the key points of the “anti-fad” position, but for me it largely comes down to this: you can’t ignore that consumers have already voted with their wallets on this one and by that criteria, the iPad may qualify as Apple’s most successful product launch in it’s history. The iPad has reached 1 million units sold in half the time as the first iPhone (and the first iPod only sold 400K units in year one). Developers are clamoring to develop native iPad product (10K native iPad apps in the store in just 6 weeks), which is largely an indicator of future success – how many developers are itching to build for WebOS or Blackberry these days? Developer passion is almost always a predictor of consumer interest…and in many ways creates that interest.

I don’t want to get too deep into the use case discussion, but I can say once you have one, many more use cases present themselves than you’d expect – it’s great for the kitchen, for example . Also, the type of consumer buying the iPad has extended well beyond the early adopters, at least based on the anecdotal evidence I’ve seen and heard. It’s not solely a geek product, which makes me believe it has staying power.

I have plenty of my own issues with it but the first gen iPod and iPhone were pretty buggy devices with suboptimal hardware and the iPad is no different. The product will evolve with the market, but in 2 months it’s essentially rendered the digital reader market obsolete (who would buy a Kindle with this on the market??) and inspired tons of innovation from the developer community. You reference the lack of traction in the netbook market, but I actually think that has nothing to do with the iPad. Netbooks failed because they universally took the wrong approach – they tried to build mini-laptops. People don’t want/need a smaller, less powerful laptop. Clearly, they were waiting for a new type of computing device, which is what Apple is trying to create with the iPad.

While Apple is certainly not immune to failure (seriously, what in the world are they doing with Apple TV?), I think there is enough evidence to dismiss the fad notion. While the iPad may evolve as the tablet market matures, I’m convinced the brand will be with us for quite some time. We’d all be wise not to ignore it.

TG
- http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen
  
  I’m definitely not saying the product is a failure. They are making money and getting some great brand buzz (especially leading up to the new iPhone release), but I still believe it’s a fad. I’m leaning more toward price being one of the main factors that won’t help it sustain. But that’s just me. If you and others want to love it, embrace it, and use it for a year or two, go for it. It’s your money. I’d rather drop $2000+ for an iPhone and MacBook Air.
  - http://twitter.com/tmgrace Tim Grace
    
    Fair enough. Most devices are disposable within 2 years anyway. For the record, I don’t personally own one, but have one bought on the company dime (for R&D, of course). I’d recommend this approach
    - http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen
      
      I don’t think management companies are going to buy up a bunch of these for properties as an R&D experiment. I don’t know of many $500+ investment devices that are disposable in 2 years. Maybe a mobile phone. If I wouldn’t have dropped my iPod (that was already 3 years old), my guess is I’d keep it going for another 3+ years. I’m a technology guy. I love new stuff, but my gut tells me this thing just doesn’t have staying power, and I am shocked at how many people have shelled out so much cash to get one. I think there will be a peak however, unlike smart phones that continue to gain market share at an alarming rate. They will have to use a much lower price to continue to move these in my opinion.
http://www.bsitko.com Bill Szczytko

Found this article Mark. Immersion he says… hmm… he might be onto something there.

http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/I-was-wrong-about-Apple-iPad/1276619322
- http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen
  
  Whatever. I still think it’s just a distraction. Definitely not for everyone. There are exceptions of course to everything, but I just don’t see it. Especially at the current price. Make these cost as much as an iPod and I may start to change my mind. I want to see the 64GB for $199 and then I may write a second opinion follow-up post.
http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen

Thanks for the comment. All great theory Mike, but I’m predicting it just won’t happen. The cost alone is prohibitive. Insuring them for loss or theft is basically not possible, and just keeping track of these would be a new company policy/procedure for distribution, use, etc. I just think there are too many “non-use” issues that even thinking about how it would be used almost becomes secondary. This is obviously just my speculation in this post, and, yes, there is a cool factor to these. But my gut tells me that unless the price comes way down I don’t see people jumping on board to buy them for their leasing teams. Again, I do see some uses for individuals that travel and take personal responsibility for their iPad, but definitely doesn’t compare to a computer or cell phone that a company would just issue to someone on site. At least not in our industry.
http://www.markjuleen.com Mark Juleen

Thanks for stopping by Eric. I’m not criticizing Apple for making money. Kudos to them. I just don’t think it’s sustainable and the buzz will die off. If I win one I’ll gladly take it, but I would guess it will be collecting dust by 2011 if not sooner. That’s just me. I actually think it would complicate my life more than anything. One more thing to think about, charge, set-up, and protect. I’d rather have a MacBook Air. I can actually do something with that and it will forever do more than an iPad.
http://twitter.com/BSitko BSitko

Found this article Mark. Immersion he says… hmm… he might be onto something there.

http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/I-was…
http://www.theapartmentnerd.com Mark Juleen

Thanks for the comment. All great theory Mike, but I'm predicting it just won't happen. The cost alone is prohibitive. Insuring them for loss or theft is basically not possible, and just keeping track of these would be a new company policy/procedure for distribution, use, etc. I just think there are too many “non-use” issues that even thinking about how it would be used almost becomes secondary. This is obviously just my speculation in this post, and, yes, there is a cool factor to these. But my gut tells me that unless the price comes way down I don't see people jumping on board to buy them for their leasing teams. Again, I do see some uses for individuals that travel and take personal responsibility for their iPad, but definitely doesn't compare to a computer or cell phone that a company would just issue to someone on site. At least not in our industry.
http://www.theapartmentnerd.com Mark Juleen

Thanks for stopping by Eric. I'm not criticizing Apple for making money. Kudos to them. I just don't think it's sustainable and the buzz will die off. If I win one I'll gladly take it, but I would guess it will be collecting dust by 2011 if not sooner. That's just me. I actually think it would complicate my life more than anything. One more thing to think about, charge, set-up, and protect. I'd rather have a MacBook Air. I can actually do something with that and it will forever do more than an iPad.
http://www.theapartmentnerd.com Mark Juleen

Whatever. I still think it's just a distraction. Definitely not for everyone. There are exceptions of course to everything, but I just don't see it. Especially at the current price. Make these cost as much as an iPod and I may start to change my mind. I want to see the 64GB for $199 and then I may write a second opinion follow-up post.
http://www.theapartmentnerd.com Mark Juleen

I'm definitely not saying the product is a failure. They are making money and getting some great brand buzz (especially leading up to the new iPhone release), but I still believe it's a fad. I'm leaning more toward price being one of the main factors that won't help it sustain. But that's just me. If you and others want to love it, embrace it, and use it for a year or two, go for it. It's your money. I'd rather drop $2000+ for an iPhone and MacBook Air.
http://www.theapartmentnerd.com Mark Juleen

Not sure if I'll put it into Zune territory, but I agree it just seems weird where it falls in place. It doesn't replace anything really, and I have a feeling that replacement costs to swap out one that is dropped or sat on won't be something that the majority is willing to shell out. I dropped my iPod awhile back and can't even justify replacing it right now. I know that replacing an iPad wouldn't be in the cards. And you can guarantee that if I were to issue one (or more) of these to leasing teams that there would have to be some seriously liability on them to keep it safe. I don't think a lot of people would want to take on that responsibility knowing that if they lose it or it's stolen that they are responsible for replacing it.
http://twitter.com/tmgrace Tim Grace

Fair enough. Most devices are disposable within 2 years anyway. For the record, I don't personally own one, but have one bought on the company dime (for R&D, of course). I'd recommend this approach
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